Romania’s parliamentary elections in numbers. 5 key takeaways as the country prepares for the presidential runoff

The parliamentary elections ended in the most heated electoral atmosphere in Romania’s recent history, with citizens caught between the uncertainty created by the Constitutional Court regarding the first round of the presidential elections and fear of the huge stakes of the second round, related to the direction the country will take in the next five years: West or East?

With the results showing no clear winner and no parliamentary majority being too readily apparent, the parties have not rushed to make any predictions of alliances or declarations of intent. A few things are clear, however, and they emerge from the cold figures.

These show the current picture of the Romanian political class and of a Parliament that has just been enlarged with two new parties, also extremist – SOS and POT. Even if they do not seem to be on the same wavelength for the time being, together with the already established AUR, they create a large so-called sovereignist, Eurosceptic and anti-Western-oriented pole, which has won about 32% of the Romanian vote. Specifically, they will hold 161 seats in Parliament, after the redistribution of the votes received by the parties that did not pass the electoral threshold, i.e. over 34% of the total.

At the same time, the big traditional parties, PSD and PNL, suffered huge declines compared to previous parliamentary rounds. PSD has the lowest score in its history, 22%, while PNL did worse only in 2000, when the late Vadim Tudor’s PRM polled an improbable 20% in the parliamentary elections.

Somewhat surprisingly, USR fails to capitalize on Elena Lasconi’s success in getting into the second round of the presidential elections and has a counter-performance: a lower score even than in the previous parliamentary elections. The scapegoats – the satellite parties created by the disgruntled USR leavers: SENS (created around MEP Nicu Ștefănuță), REPER (former PLUS) and DREPT (where former USR MEP Vlad Gheorghe was a big part), which failed to cross the threshold but together gathered more than 5% of the vote.

Until things settle in a clearer direction, we look at the present figures and put them in historical context.

1. PSD and PNL, in the same dire situation

Gone are the days when the battle for Parliament was fought between two bigwigs, PSD and PNL. The Social Democrats have only seen the 22% mark only once in their history: in 1996, when Emil Constantinescu and the Democratic Convention knocked out the machine led by Ion Iliescu for just one episodic mandate.

The Liberals are hovering around the 14% mark and are no better off either, even though they almost managed to double the unfortunate score of former president Nicolae Ciucă (8%). Only in 2000 did they score lower in the parliamentary vote (7%). It must be said, however, that unlike PSD, PNL has several times gone into alliance with another big party, including PSD in 2012, so it is harder to know the real history of its scores in the parliamentary vote.

2. The great decline: how PSD and PNL have fallen in their 2020 fiefdoms

We have compared the five best scores obtained by PSD and PNL in the 2020 parliamentary elections with the vote in those counties, in 2024. In most cases, there are huge differences, and the big loser is clearly PNL.

In the biggest 2020 fiefdoms of PSD and PNL, AUR scored 18-20%. George Simion’s party and the two new small extremist parties that have entered Parliament, SOS and POT, have eaten massively into the electorate of these two big parties, depending on the county.

For example, in Olt, PSD’s top county in 2020, the party lost 16 percent. The Liberals lost only 9% compared to the previous elections, and USR around 6%. The three sovereignist-extremist parties that have now entered parliament have shared the spoils.

Giurgiu was PNL’s jewel in 2020, with a record score of around 47% for the Liberals. In 2024, the plunge was 10-11 percent. An even bigger loss went to PSD, which lost 13 percent in Giurgiu, compared to 2020. The sovereignist parties have gorged on both traditional parties.

In Botoșani, PSD lost around 12 percent compared to 2020, while the Liberals maintained their score from four years ago.

But the big holes can be seen for PNL. In three of the counties where they obtained the highest scores in 2020, the fall off is huge, while PSD has maintained the score it obtained there four years ago. In Sibiu, Klaus Iohannis’s legacy has translated into a halving of PNL’s score: a plunge from almost 42% in 2020 to 19% in 2024. PSD kept its modest score of around 14%, while AUR took 18%.

In Teleorman and Mehedinți, counties won by PSD but where the Liberals scored very well in 2020, the situation looks similar. Huge losses for PNL, similar results for PSD. The PNL electorate here went to AUR and the rest of the extremists.

3. AUR doubled in size

We are already talking about AUR and George Simion as established parts of the Romanian parliamentary system, but we should not forget that they have only ascended on the scene since 2020. George Simion was getting less than 2,000 votes as an independent candidate in the 2019 European Parliamentary elections.

It was a great shock when AUR managed to enter the Parliament in 2020, with 9%. Since then, the party has managed to grow steadily. Four years later, its score has doubled to become Romania’s second largest parliamentary force with over 18%. Let’s also bear in mind that two other parties – SOS and POT – have consistently taken from its potential electoral pool, so much so that they managed to enter Parliament. The “sovereignist” movement in Romania, which sometimes veers into extremism, anti-Western rhetoric, or even pro-Russian sentiments, has grown into a sprawling and chaotic mix over just a few years.

4. USR has managed to halt its decline but is still performing below its potential

USR has managed the dubious feat of securing a score far below that of its electoral frontrunner, Elena Lasconi, who achieved 19% in the first round of the presidential elections. With a leader vying for Romania’s presidency, suddenly cast as the champion of the country’s pro-Western path, USR’s 12% for Parliament is hardly a result to boast about.

However, it’s worth noting that the party’s sharp decline has been halted. This summer, in the European elections, USR secured less than 9% – and that was in an alliance with two other parties, PMP and Forța Dreptei.

5. Romanians have woken up to the importance of voting: the Parliament matters

Voter turnout hit a record high for parliamentary elections over the past 16 years. Interest in parliamentary elections among Romanians had been in steep decline since the 2004 vote, reaching an all-time low in 2020, when only 32% showed up at the polls.

The tension sparked by the first round of the presidential elections and the shock caused by Călin Georgescu mobilized voters this time around. It’s not yet clear which groups felt more motivated to vote compared to previous years, but given the strong showing of the AUR-SOS-POT bloc, it seems the nationalist-extremist camp managed to rally effectively.

Note: The party scores in the parliamentary elections represent an averaged figure between results for the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.